propasdagutligser.netlify.com

NFL Betting Systems: The Definitive Guide to the Top Strategies

How big is the football betting market?

Forget baseball.

In the world of online gambling, the NFL's Super Bowl is the biggest game in town. No single event in the world attracts more real money betting. But you don’t have to wait until the next big game to place a bet. We’d recommend that you place a few wagers on regular season and postseason games first, to get a taste for how it all works. NFL season is underway and there's no better time to prepare yourself for NFL betting with this helpful guide to explain NFL odds, point spreads, and more. Football, Basketball, Horses and More Those looking to get the most out of their online gaming experience can certainly do so here. That's because GTbets features daily sports betting lines, action on all of the major horse races, and over 160 casino games.Expanding on the sports betting, players can wager on the tennis, boxing, basketball betting, golf, the NBA, soccer, and even reality TV.

Nfl Gambling Podcast

America’s favorite pastime is football.

The proof is in the pudding. And the Vegas sportsbooks. Football is by far the most bet on sport in the United States. To be specific, the Super Bowl.

This past year alone, the American Gaming Association estimated bettors to have wagered upwards of $4.7 billion dollars on the nation’s most-watched sporting event.

Despite an ongoing federal ban on sports betting outside Nevada (and sparingly in certain other states), the majority of that money comes from illegal bets placed outside of the Sagebrush State.

That’s right.

Only $132M of that $4.7B is considered legal.

And yet, betting for the sport continues to increase with each passing year. According to Jimmy Vaccaro, a prominent Las Vegas bookmaker, Americans wager upwards of $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.

That being said, the majority of bettors fail to turn a profit.

According to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of Beat the Sports Books(Cardoza Publishing 2005), throughout an entire NFL season, “fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit. Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

Why do most NFL betting systems fail?

Well a standard bet requires bettors to wage $11 for every $10 they want to win. The extra $1 is called the juice.

Were it not for the juice, things might be different.

The average bettor might have a chance at real success. But as it stands, the odds and the money favor the bookmakers. A sports bettor has to select 52.4 percent winners simply to break even. But each year, the average Joe wins only 50 percent of the bets they make.

Treat NFL betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms —

So it’s an uphill battle for most bettors dipping their toes in the waters of sports gambling.

The trick is to take things seriously.

Treat betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms — and you might just have a chance at going from square to sharp.

But don’t be overwhelmed.

If you’re reading this, chances are you’re a serious bettor looking to make some well-informed decisions to take your football betting to another level.

Before we get into the fundamentals of NFL betting, let’s first take a look at the basics of our very own predictive wager system.

Our Betting Methodology and System

The Simulator is built based on a predictive model created by a doctor with an extensive background in mathematics, psychology, and operations research.

This individual has worked with multiple professional and collegiate sports organizations, player agents, sports data agencies and a top-ranked fantasy website. His work with professional sports organizations includes optimizing scout travel, in-depth player analysis and lineup configurations.

Correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time

Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting.

A neural network is defined as a computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system.

Using this technology, the good doctor found that, “the best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.”

While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, the NFL.

What makes the Sports Analytics Simulator unique is that it relies not on data inputs (statistics) from previous seasons, but on continuous game-to-game updates.

The Simulator’s specific algorithms run through up to forty different stat categories to create the most efficient model possible.

From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding.

For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works.

NFL Betting Systems

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of NFL Betting. Essentially there are six different ways to bet on the NFL. Let’s run through them shall we?

NFL Spread Bet

The first and most popular form of NFL betting is spread-based. Which is pretty straightforward.

Bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Chiefs over the Steelers, the Chiefs must win by seven points or more.

Whereas in order for the Steelers to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win. To make it simpler, the spread gives the underdog a ‘head start’.

In this case, the Steelers have a +7 head start in points to kick off the game. Pretty straightforward stuff.

Now, if you simply want to bet on the winner of the game you’ll want to place a…

Moneyline Bet

Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog.

Let’s go back to this Chiefs-Steelers matchup.

Let’s say the Chiefs have a favored line of -150 and the Steelers have an underdog line of +125.

What this means is that in order to win a hundred dollars on the Chiefs, you must wage $150.

As for the underdogs, if you wage $100 you will win $125. So that’s that.

NFL Totals Bet

NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game.

Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 55 points for the Chiefs and Steelers.

Your job as a bettor is to decide whether the score will be… over or under 55 points.

NFL Prop Bet

A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.

Prop bets come in many different forms.

Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i.e. if a team scores on a specific drive.

During the Super Bowl you’ll see all sorts of fun prop bets like coin toss wagers.

NFL Parlay Bet

You might have seen a parlay bet featured in the film, Silver Linings Playbook, (or read it in the book), wherein Pat Solitano’s father, Patrizio Sr., places a bet on the Eagles-Cowboys game and the judge outcome of Pat and Tiffany’s dance number in a local dance-off.

Gambling And The Nfl

In order for Patrizio to win the bet, the Eagles must win their game against Dallas and Tiffany and Pat score 5 out of 10 in their dance competition.

This is what’s known as a parlay bet, wherein various games and outcomes are rubber-banded together into one single bet.

In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet.

In the NFL, this is a common form of betting to get more bang for your buck.

NFL Teaser Bet

A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten NFL wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout.

When your teaser includes a point spread, you have the option to decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog.

When you’re teasing a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over.

Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.

Standard teasers are 6, 6.5 and 7-point. There’s also a sweetheart teaser, which offers you the choice to tease a line by 10 or 13 points.

It’s basically a parlay with a little bit of zazz.

The Most Important NFL Betting Stats

Now, knowing the forms of NFL betting is great but without the statistics to back up your wager, you’re S.O.L.

So what are the most important stats for successfully determining winners in an NFL game?

Nfl Gambling Reddit

Well, it might not be what you think.

According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt.

Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents

In a passer’s league this makes a lot of sense.

Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents. Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging.

The other big stat to consider in placing your bets is turnovers.

Seems pretty simple.

The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game.

As we’ve said, the Sports Analytics Simulator utilizes up-to-date, real time game-to-game statistics to establish the most accurate predictions week in and week out. So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt.

Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research. Check out important stats. Take your time with each pick. Choose wisely based on time-tested methods and patterns.

Factors for NFL picks?

Aside from the aforementioned factors, you’ve got to consider other dynamics. For instance, what is the most pivotal quality of any team in the NFL?

I’ll give you a hint. It’s not a good quarterback. Teams with good quarterbacks flounder all the time in the NFL.

If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five

What really matters is the team’s offensive line.

Bet Nfl Online

Think the 2016-17 Dallas Cowboys. Sure, they failed to win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback and running back. But the majority of their success last season was owed directly to the strength of their offensive line.

If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five.

In order to successfully bet the NFL, you’ve got to consider these more understated and under-appreciated factors — such as a strong O-Line.

You’ve got to take it game by game and know that in this league, fortunes shift in an instant. There’s no perfect formula for effective betting.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t resources and numbers at your disposal to help you get the edge on oddsmakers.

With that said, let’s explore some of the biggest mistakes that squares (amateur bettors) often make when betting on the NFL.

Biggest mistakes with NFL betting

Money Management

The biggest mistake is money management.

If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.

This seems pretty obvious but you’d be surprised (or maybe not) at the trouble amateur bettors have with this one.

It’s simple.

Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.

That means knowing what your bankroll is for a given season and being disciplined with your money. “Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” says Jimmy Vaccaro. “If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

Shop the Numbers

Another big mistake amateurs make is that they don’t account for a variety of numbers.

No sportsbook is exactly the same as another.

Lines, differentials, totals, spreads will all look different depending on where you look. In the NFL, you might not think that .5 points is a significant. But you’d be wrong. So shop the numbers.

Don’t say yes to the first line you see.

Shopping the numbers will give you a better idea of potential outcomes and allow you to make a well-rounded decision on your bets.

What else? Well, let’s start with something basic.

Bet the Underdog at Home

There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home

You might think betting on the favorite is the obvious option every time but you’d be wrong. “There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. “Teams play inspired ball at home.

Slim underdogs regularly win outright.

Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

To revisit a favorite example, the Chiefs tend to claim the edge in the majority of their home games, no matter their status on the betting lines.

Why?

Because there’s magic at Arrowhead.

There’s more to lose when you’re playing before 150,000 of your fans’ scrutinizing eyeballs.

Here’s a list of some of the other worst betting mistakes you can make:

1. Chasing your bets
2. Getting vindictive
3. Trying to win back losses
4. Go after big wins to recoup losses
5. Overly-promising wagers.

It’s like a night of heavy drinking. It might sound tempting beforehand. But the next day you’re likely to have some regret.

Remember that betting is a mathematician’s game.

There’s no large place for emotion in this game.

When it comes to the NFL, upon which more bets are placed than any other sport in America, that goes double. The oddsmakers have one job — and that’s to know their shit.

The key to beating them is knowing yours too.

As legal sports betting rolls out across the US, the biggest slice of the market is betting on the NFL.

Pro football is the most-watched sport in America, and that translates to it being the most bet-on sport as well.

NFL betting sites

Read on for more information about betting on the NFL in 2021 and the market for it in the US.

Where you can legally bet on the NFL in the US

There are more than a dozen states where you can legally bet on NFL football games currently. Here is the list of states where sports betting is legal, or where it has been legalized pending launch (click through to learn more about betting options in any of these states:

Online betting is currently live in these states, which should be the largest markets for sports wagering in short order:

NFL betting in New Jersey

The second biggest market for betting on the NFL is New Jersey, and it will likely surpass Nevada in the near future — possibly in 2020 or 2021.

That’s for several reasons:

• It’s a more open market for online betting — you can register online from anywhere in the state
• New Jersey is also interesting in that it has access to the New York City market; NY only has a few physical sportsbooks upstate. But New Yorkers can cross the river into New Jersey and bet easily.
• Betting on the Giants, Jets and Eagles is popular among New Jersey residents.

There are no shortage of NJ sports betting apps:

• BetAmerica
• Hard Rock
• Bet365

NFL betting in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is the biggest state that has legal sports betting apps. Population centers and football-crazy cities Philadelphia and Pittsburgh create a good starting based for legal sports gambling.

There are only a handful of apps in the state as of September 2019, but more are on the way.

• Parx Sportsbook

NFL betting in Illinois

Illinois is the sixth most populous state in the US, while Chicago is the single largest metropolitan area with legal online sports betting. Sportsbooks are also keen to acquire customers now, while in-person registration is suspended.

There are already a handful of live apps in the state, including:

NFL betting in Colorado

Despite only launching in May, the Colorado market already has a wide range of sportsbooks for betting NFL.

The CO apps live today include:

• BetMonarch
• Circa Sports
• ELITE Sportsbook
• Smarkets
• Sky Ute

NFL betting in West Virginia

West Virginia has two of the major players in online sports betting: DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

There are also a trio of physical sportsbooks. While betting on West Virginia University is huge, expect a lot of betting on the NFL teams in surrounding states as well.

NFL betting in Nevada

Sports betting has been around for decades in Nevada, and it’s the biggest market for NFL betting right now. Hundreds of millions are wagered on NFL games in Las Vegas and beyond.

While there are more than 100 physical sportsbooks, nearly all of them also have a sports betting app. While the tech in Nevada lags behind other markets, and you have to sign up in person for an app, they are still a good option.

Mobile betting accounts for more than half of all betting — NFL and otherwise — in Nevada.

NFL betting in Iowa

Iowa went live with sports betting in the summer of 2019, rolling out physical sportsbooks and online sports betting apps almost in parallel.

There are already more than a dozen sportsbooks in the state, along with apps that you have to register for at a casino and racetrack.

Legal NFL betting apps vs. illegal offshore apps

If you’re not in one of the states mentioned above, you are not betting at a site that operates legally in the US or in your state.

While many people believe that sports betting became widely legal in 2018, all that happened was the repeal of a federal ban allowing states to legalize sports betting.

So if you want to bet on the NFL, keep in mind where you’re betting. While individual bettors are unlikely to get in trouble for betting at a site that operates outside of the constraints of US law, the sites themselves do run afoul of federal and state law. Despite the fact that these sportsbooks will tell you they are operating legally, that is far from the truth.

If you’re in Nevada, New Jersey and other states that have betting laws, you have a number of regulated choices to choose from. Unfortunately for much of the country, there is no legal option. That includes large states like California and Florida. In New York, you can bet at some upstate sportsbooks but only in-person.

How much do Americans bet on the NFL?

Despite the fact that the NFL has the fewest games of any pro team sport, it’s by far the most popular to bet on.

With a handful of preseason games, 16 in the regular season and then a win-to-advance playoff system, there’s a premium on every game. That dynamic makes the NFL the most popular sport to watch on TV; the Super Bowl every year is the most-watched program on TV in the US.

All of that interest creates a robust market for betting on the NFL in the US, despite the fact that single-game wagering has only been legal in Nevada before 2018. People still find myriad ways of having a monetary interest on the outcome of games, from fantasy sports, to betting against friends, to using illegal offshore sportsbooks.

Gauging how much is bet on the NFL by Americans is tricky because of all that. The American Gaming Association says that 38 million adults will bet on the NFL in 2019.

If you include fantasy and social betting, the number is certainly in the hundreds of millions. If limited to offshore books, the number has been estimated from the tens of billions to $150 billion.

The advent of legal sports betting outside of Nevada will increase all of these figures even more. The NFL, as the country’s most popular sport, will drive betting handle in most states.

When is NFL betting the biggest?

Vegas Nfl Betting Odds

The interest in betting on the NFL usually follows a rhythm, starting out strong before hitting a crescendo in the postseason:

• The first few weeks of the NFL season are usually the biggest in the regular season, outside of weeks that feature several top teams facing off and/or divisional rivalries. Everyone is excited to bet on the NFL when it returns, and that honeymoon usually lasts several weeks.
• Thanksgiving is now a big time to bet on games. With the unidivided attention of NFL fans — at least before dinner is served — there are three games that take place on the holiday every year.
• The end of the season is often a bit slower for betting on the NFL, from attrition of bettors to lack of interest as some teams fall out of the playoff hunt. But that resets as the playoffs begin, with huge numbers of bettors wanting to have action on wild-card games, divisional games and conference championships.
• The Super Bowl is usually the single biggest day for betting at any sportsbook. Tens of millions of people will watch, and many of them have action on the game some way, whether through a sportsbook, a squares competition or a wager with a friend. But as sports betting rolls out in more and more states, expect there to be a lot of betting on the NFL.

Sports betting apps vs. physical sportsbooks for NFL

NFL fans love to watch games at sportsbooks. Nevada has long cashed in on the intersection of betting and lots of TVs, packing sportsbooks in Las Vegas and elsewhere with fans on NFL Sundays.

It is usually a good experience, except it can be difficult to get your bet down in-person on a busy Sunday. The lines to place bets in states with legal sports betting are usually extremely long; in states where online betting is legal, it’s far more convenient.

Here’s a bit of a breakdown:

Sports betting app advantages

• Multiple ways to deposit and withdraw funds
• Easier to place bets
• Live betting options — betting while games are going on — is far more robust.
• Convenient to bet from nearly anywhere (as long as you are located in a state where it is legal).
• Deposit bonuses and odds boosts

Physical sportsbook advantages

• Personal contact with a ticket writer
• Can watch nearly every game at a sportsbook
• Free drink tickets are sometimes given at sportsbooks

More about NFL betting odds and lines

If you are betting on the NFL, there are a variety of ways to do so. Here is a quick look at some of the ways:

• Point spread: This is the most common way to bet on NFL games, and is generally the type of bet that sportsbooks see the most of. Here, the sportsbook sets a line that team X will win a game by Y points; for instance, New England could be a three-point favorite at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. If you bet New England at minus-3, you are betting that New England will win by four or more points. If you bet on the Eagles, you are betting that Philly will either win, tie or lose by two or one points.
• Moneyline: This simplest type of bet, a bettor is just picking who will win the game. The confusing part for bettors not used to looking at moneyline odds. Here, a favorite will usually be assigned a negative number, and the underdog a positive number. New England could be a -148 favorite, meaning you need to bet $148 to win $100. Philly could be a +128 underdog, meaning you bet $100 to win $128. Favorites, therefore, return less money than underdogs.
• Totals: Betting on how many points will be scored in an NFL game is another very common bet. Here, the sportsbook sets a line, and you bet whether the two teams will combine to score more or fewer points than that total.
• Futures: There are a variety of ways to bet on future events for the NFL. The most common is to bet on the winner of the Super Bowl. You can also bet on conference champions, division champions, and regular-season win totals among other things.
• Prop betting: Here, a bettor is betting on whether something will or won’t happen in a game. Will Tom Brady pass for 300 yards or more? Will Antonio Brown score two touchdowns? You’re betting on whether the number set by the book.
• Parlays: A bet where you connect more than one outcome into a single bet. For instance, you could combine three point spreads into a single bet that would result in longer odds and an increased payout if the bettor picks all three correctly. These are generally profitable bets for sportsbooks because of the degree of difficulty for the bettor.
• Live betting: Betting on a game while it is in progress is an increasingly popular way to wager. Most of the methods of wagering above are available while games are going on, including spreads based on the current score and time, what players will do during the game, etc.
• Teasers: This is essentially a two-leg parlay that lets you move the point spread or total six points in your favour. For example you could tease two 8.5 point favourites down to -2.5. You normally pay -110 to -120 on a two-team teaser.

Nfl And Casinos

Note that all of these types of winning bets will include vigorish or a commission that the sportsbook charges on winning bets. More on sports betting terms can be found here. And that’s not an exhaustive list of bet types either.